More roads means more congestion

By Dr Tony Whitbread

Chief Executive

We are in a phase of “consultation” for road building along the A27. Proposals at Worthing and at Arundel are in the fray at the moment, but I’m sure more will follow. We appear to be entering another road-building bonanza where, ignoring the evidence of the past, the dewy-eyed romantics of the Highways Agency believe that road building will solve all our congestion ills.

Let’s stop the pretence. New roads will bring more traffic and more congestion. We know this from pure common sense and from decades-old evidence that road-building generates more traffic. Professor Phil Goodwin in his 2006 report ‘Induced traffic again, And again, And again’ pointed out that for 80 years, empirical studies and official reports had agreed on the rather inconvenient truth that more road capacity leads to more traffic. Evidence from The CPRE ‘End of the road report’ in 2017 uses 13 cases, each analysed in detail for traffic impact concluded that road schemes generate more traffic. On average, traffic grew 47% more than background levels, with one scheme more than doubling traffic within 20 years. None of the four schemes assessed in the longer-term showed the promised reduction in congestion; all put pressure on adjoining roads.

We re-learn the lessons about every 10 years – a knee-jerk road building reaction only makes matters worse and a more sophisticated solution is needed.

If the result of road building is not to reduce congestion, it is therefore to increase traffic? Why?

Maybe there are two answers to this.

Some honestly believe that a road will take the traffic away: possibly, a belief bourn of frustration when waiting in an endless queue. A simple solution – road building – might seem very attractive in this light.

For some, however, traffic increase is the objective, hiding behind the veneer of re-discovering the open road. More traffic will enable more development, more building, more industry – perhaps the industrialisation of Sussex. This is part of an agenda for turning Sussex into urban sprawl.

And it won’t stop with a couple of new roads.More roads breed more congestion and so demands for more roads.Imagine any busy junction in Sussex. Now imagine it with 20% more traffic!When does it stop?

All of this, of course, drives environmental damage. Ancient woods and wetlands are threatened around Arundel.Other proposals threaten that landscape of the National Park. Habitats are lost or isolated, wildlife declines, people’s access to nature reduces. At a time when we should be addressing climate change, we are taking a huge step in the opposite direction.

But there are better solutions.There is a well-known transport hierarchy. First reduce the need to travel – modern solutions like Broadband and IT.Second, 80% of journeys are short and local (why then are all efforts focused on the other 20%), so increase the role of walking and cycling. Third, encourage the use of public transport (such as the railway that runs alongside the A27!). Only fourth should we be considering built infrastructure and only part of that is new roads.

Only when all of the above have been considered should a new road scheme be put on the table.